South Korea Vows to Avenge Sailors’ Deaths?
About a month ago, a South Korean’s guard ship exploded near the sea border between South Korea and North Korea while patrolling the area which results of 46 people dead, yet there is no clear public explanation of the cause from the government. However, North Korea is also believed to be a suspect that stay behind this attack according to South Korean’s defense minister, although he had not yet openly confirm the case. Despite the South Korean accusation, North Korea denied the involvement with the explosion. (Sang-Hun A10)
In the case above, if the South Korean’s defense minister and South Korean majority suspicion is right, as a state actor, South Korea is expected to provide safety and security to their citizens. Therefore, any kind counters attack either diplomatically or militarily to respond to crisis that is considered as a violation of South Korean’s security and sovereignty is expected. Even though, military option is the most proper way to respond, yet South Korea does not has a capability to carry on the attack by itself; since its military firepower is outnumbers by the North Korean army. Nevertheless, South Korean government can protest through diplomatic means. The point is diplomatic respond is not effectual to deal with North Korea. It has isolated its self from the rest of the world for more than 50 years so far, so another diplomatic protest is not working.
In this case, if South Korean decided to respond hostilely, will it leads to the second Korean War? Will the history repeat itself again or not it is not up to the South Korean government alone to decide. There are many interests get involve with this issue. Firstly, the total security of South Korean population is the most important. So far as I know, there are more than 1000 missiles are targeting Seoul, the Capital of South Korea, and they are ready to strike at any time if ordered. Secondly, the world security as a whole is also a reason that could influence the South Korean government decision. This matter is not only about both Korean countries, but it will spill over to international level if it allows getting out of control. United States government’s stance to protect the South Korean interest is absolute and no doubt. However, we do not know what will the China stance behind the North Korea. Could the history repeat itself, we do not know yet.
In addition, unlike the first Korean War, the second Korean War will have a different and serious out come. Currently North Korea is also considered as a nuclear arm nation. Even though, its nuclear weapon is not yet as powerful as the western nuclear weapons, but it will be powerful enough to flat Seoul city to the ground in one bomb. Since this issue relate to human lives and especially to the use of nuclear weapon, there are strongly expect some kind of reactions at lease from human right organization from both locally and internationally that will influence to the government decision as well.
Therefore, both of theoretical perspectives, realism and pluralism, share the common point of national security interest, but they do not share who has the absolute power to decide. In fact, realism seems to losing its ground to the pluralism; since it cannot successful persuade the South Korea and its U.S allied to go to war with North Korea. And if there is no war breaking out, we can assume that the South Korea and its allies, the United States, based on strategic calculation could foresee the cost and effect of the war especially to put the South Korea national life at stage. Most likely, the decision to go to war with North Korea will be less likely to happen.
Peter
